The York Politics Review

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By Sam Chapman – Regular Contributor

Political careers seem to be getting shorter, and ending in increasingly embarrassing ways. The most recent victim of this curse was California Republican Kevin McCarthy, who on Tuesday made history in becoming the first ever Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to be ousted. While many mourn the precarious condition this leaves Congress in, none can doubt this was a crisis of McCarthy’s own making.

In November of 2022 the House of Representatives – the largest chamber of Congress – flipped Republican after four years of Democrat leadership. During the election, Kevin McCarthy predicted a ‘red wave’ would sweep more than 40 Democrats out of office, but the final result disappointed conservatives. They gained just 9 districts, and while this made Republicans the largest party, McCarthy achieved a measly majority of 4 members. Before he had even been sworn in, the writing was on the wall for disaster.

It is not unheard of for the House to operate on slim majorities. Indeed, the Democrat-controlled Congress of last year possessed a working majority of only 7, and in that period, Ukraine received over $100b in aid, and the federal minimum wage was increased substantially. This was achieved through party discipline and uniformity. No such discipline exists within the Republicans. 

To be sworn in as Speaker, a candidate must be voted in by a majority of House members. Since Republicans had won the election (albeit narrowly), and McCarthy was their leader, it was expected that he would be handed the Speaker’s gavel in January free from difficulties. However, some had other plans. Elements in the party already hated McCarthy, and he received only 203 of the 216 votes he required to become Speaker. A second round of voting occurred, which he also lost. The following week was one long public humiliation, as 15 rounds of voting were required before McCarthy won. To achieve the magic number of 216 votes, he not only had to sell his soul to the devil, but his lungs and kidneys too.

Who was this devil? They call themselves the ‘Freedom Caucus’, and simply put: they are the disciples of Donald Trump. You would be hard-pressed to find a Republican in the House of Representatives who does not profess loyalty to the former President, but there is a far-right flank who go above and beyond into cult-like reverence. Since Trump left office in January 2021, these members have made it their mission to disrupt and derail government at every turn. As this ‘Freedom Caucus’ is not an official group, it is hard to gauge their exact number, but there are enough in the House to put Kevin McCarthy entirely at their mercy, and they made him crawl over broken glass for their support. 

The leader of this group is Florida Congressman Matthew Gaetz, whose most famous contribution to public life is having been accused of helping to sex-traffic minors across state lines. Another prominent member is Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert, who has repeatedly attempted to bring guns into Congress. These are the people Kevin McCarthy was beholden to, and the concession he made to them was to grant them the power to call a confidence against him whenever they chose. This would prove lethal in months to come, but agreeing to it was his only path to power. The deal was struck, and McCarthy took office. Then, the wheels fell off.

The USA is one of the only nations which sets itself a ‘debt ceiling’, and exceeding this ceiling jeopardises their ability to borrow. This has never happened in history, as both parties routinely agree to raise it whenever necessary. In June of this year, economists warned that if America defaulted on its debt, the economy would shrink by 6%, and to most this was a problem requiring immediate remedy. For the anti-McCarthy Republicans, it was a golden ticket. The default deadline loomed and negotiations went nowhere. Short of slashing Social Security to balance budgets, there was nothing McCarthy could promise to get the troublemakers on side. Eventually, he went around his own party to strike a deal with President Biden. The debt ceiling was raised, default was avoided, and the far-right were furious. This was strike one against McCarthy.

Aware of his tenuous position, McCarthy needed to throw some red meat to the cannibals. Thankfully, he had a rabbit in his hat, and that rabbit’s name was ‘impeachment’. Republicans have been eager to impeach Biden for months, the only challenge being they cannot find any grounds to do it. Regardless, McCarthy opened investigations and summoned witnesses to the Capitol to testify against the President for reasons unknown. It was a blatant attempt to placate his colleagues, and it backfired spectacularly. The hearings were a disaster, as every Republican witness admitted under oath that they did not believe Biden had committed any crimes. Some Republicans went as far as to accuse McCarthy of setting the inquiry up to fail. This was strike two. The vultures were circling.

In September, the 2024 budget had to be agreed upon by Congress, and the fight the far-right picked was Ukraine. Many Republicans disagree with the decision to aid Ukraine’s ongoing efforts against Russia, and so the thorns in McCarthy’s side defeated all budgets supporting Ukraine. Failure to pass a budget by 11.59pm on 30 September puts the government into ‘shutdown’: the lights go out, everyone goes home, and all federal employees are furloughed. Since the Ukraine issue was not going away, McCarthy once again struck a deal with the Democrats. A short-term budget was agreed, and the far-right were livid. This was strike three. The gloves came off.

Taking to the House floor immediately after the budget passed, McCarthy’s albatross Matt Gaetz announced “Mr Speaker, you are out of line!” Then, he used the power McCarthy had given to him in January, and called for a confidence vote in the House Speaker. Officially called ‘Motion to Vacate,’ if it passed, McCarthy would be forcibly removed from his post. Not since the Civil War had such a motion been called, and never in US history had it succeeded. This fact gave McCarthy a false sense of security: he scheduled the vote for the following afternoon and tweeted three short words: “Bring. It. On.”

The next day, he lost his job.

Maybe he believed he had called their bluff. Maybe he thought the Democrats would bail him out again. Maybe he had simply had enough and wanted redundancy pay. Whatever his thought process, on 3 October the House of Representatives decided the Speaker’s fate. Every Democrat voted against McCarthy. This left the California Congressman with only enough wiggle-room for 4 of his own to turn against him. Each Republican’s name was called in turn, and by the end 8 had voted for his removal. For the first time in American history, the House of Representatives ousted its leader.

It had taken McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to gain the Speakership in January, but only 1 to remove him 269 days later. His is the third-shortest tenure of any House Speaker, and he leaves office with no legislative record. The House is unable to conduct any business until a new Speaker is elected, but the Republican Party in its current condition does not seem fit to agree on anything. Washington finds itself in uncharted waters, and many questions are being asked of Congress. Perhaps the most important of them: will a new Speaker clamp down on party rebels, or will the far-right be handed the reins at last?